By Ilobi Austin
I never expected Dr. Goodluck Jonathan the President and Commander -in-Chief
of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to declare interest in contesting
the 2011 presidential election; for reasons that includes the following: it is
against the official position of his party that zoning which, in the long run,
is for the ultimate good of his south-south region, with its never ending factious
ethnic tension, in particular and the entire south in general remains its
guiding principle for the distribution
of political offices amongst the geo-political zones of the country; a position
that should make his declaration an act of rascality against the party and
therefore punishable by expulsion; it is bound to unlevel the playing field for
both aspirants of his party in the race, and flag bearers alike since he cannot
hope to win the primaries of his party and the election without a ramrod like
the EFCC to keep his opponents and their supporters busy. But he did declare via
the e-conference platform, Face Book, and the carnival-like display at Eagle
square, Abuja.
Both comes amidst clamours and rash of endorsements from multiplicity
of mushroom groups— most, fortune seekers and miners— from across the country
for him to present himself for the race. An action that has been a standard
issue, perhaps modelled after the American system, as far as Nigeria’s politics is concern. But
can these endorsements produce the same result as is the case in America’s
democracy? Most certainly not, if vote cast is allowed to be the sole
determinant of the fate of candidates.
It must be noted that Nigeria’s
political elite class is largely not of the peoples of the country but of the
media with the active support of the Nigerian state leadership for the purpose
of creating a semblance of a mass acceptance of it retrogressive ideas, like
the falsification election results, whenever the need arises. The ordinary
Nigerian is totally indifferent to the political views or leanings of most of
the persons that claims to represent their conscience. This people are “leaders”
of the people for as long as the state with the active connivance of the media
continues to avail them the use of state terror agencies for the purpose of
harassing and intimidating opponents. Separated from such leverage they become
nothing but fish out of water! None of
these groups that have endorsed the seating president, apart from those
operating in the south-south which is understandable, can be relied upon to
deliver a ward in the coming election particularly, those based in the Northern
part of the country and, to a lesser extent, the South East.
In the North, voting pattern would be a function of the battle cry for
justice as it relates to zoning, an arrangement that saw virtually all
presidential candidates from the region giving up their ambition in 1999. As
for the south east, the voting direction of the people would be anchored on the
prospect of one of their own becoming the president in 2015; an exercise that seems,
logically, more realisable under a northerner, within the zoning principle. In
the south-west, the people are likely to vote for Dr. Jonathan. In addition to
the above, the amount of information available to the individual member of the public
on the possibilities offered by each of the candidates for the individual and
then group and the antecedent of the aspirants and flag-bearers in promoting
democratic ideals and stability in challenging times.
What Dr. Goodluck Jonathan has got going for him and from which he
derives his strength and confidence in contesting the election is not these listless
endorsements, which is more of a business venture and/or furtherance of
personal political ambitions than an honest support based on convictions nor any
reliance on any super performance of his administration on the key areas of
need, but the power of incumbency with all that goes with it—drawing support
from quarters that he would ,ordinarily, have drawn flaks. That was exactly why
his declaration rally was what it was: a carnival, which does not in any way
signified victory at the polls even if the presidential ticket of his party, the
PDP, is his for the asking— a most testy submission given the order of the
primaries that would produce the flag-bearers for the different categories of
office seekers with that for the presidential candidates coming last.