General Obasanjo: master strategist per excellence on the road again

Gen. Olusegun General Obasanjo, immediate former president call on the incumbent president, Yaradua to vacate office on account of a recurring ill health which resurfaced “like play” some time in late November and has kept him away even as at the time of scripting this, have been attracting reactions from Nigerians in different ways with majority understandably, vilifying him.




Some of these critics have magisterially stated that he never wanted Yaradua to be president. While others have equally stated in like fashion that he never believed that Yaradua, on account of his china ware like health condition could make it beyond the electioneering stage. However, to this writer, both postulations are too empty to be a possibility. General Obasanjo wanted to hand over to no other family in the north but the Yaradua’s and within the family, the lot fell on Musa. Some of the reasons for this, he has given while the author would conjecture others.




FIRSTLY, THE MATRIARCH OF THE YARADUA DYNASTY WHO REGARDS GENERAL OBASANJO AS ONE OF HER BLOOD SONS IS STILL VERY MUCH ALIVE. So handing over to Musa would translate into rock solid immunity for him for all the eight years that Musa would be the superintending the nation’s affairs, which is enough time for Nigerians, always forgetful, to forget he ever ruled them to ever demand a comprehensive probe of his government, after Musa’s regime. After Musa’s regime because he, Musa would never do it! Why?




The mother would never allow him any rest if it were brought to her notice that one of her sons was being troubled by another. All words to explain the issue would have been wasted. She would have summoned the name of the late Shehu whose immediate family members would have taken side with her to harass the president into discontinuing any such act. Even if General Obasanjo recent out burst against the president is devoid of any strategizing, she would still fight the president if he dares moves against him. General Obasanjo knows this: for as long the mother is alive, Musa would remain incapacitated where he is concerned. No TRUE son or daughter can say no to determined mother’s request and the histories of both families are too entwined for her not to be determined in demanding such.




SECONDLY AND GENERAL OBASANJO SAID THIS, HIMSELF: HE WANTED SOMEBODY WITH ENOUGH PERSONAL INTERGRITY. No body can truly look the president in the face and accuse him of being deficient in this. General Obasanjo, it is possible might have, and to some extent correctly, interpreted this in Yaradua to mean he would keep to his word, when given on any issue. So he might have in his cunning ways, extracted some promises from Musa not to rock the boat damagingly but to call and clarify matters were they become complex as he might have done certain things, though illegal, absent mindedly. Yaradua no doubt nodded his understanding and publicly promised to continue with the programs of his predecessor. But he settled down to real business to discover a mountain of profitable “absent mindedness” on the part of General Obasanjo which if deodorized and left intact would take a life of their own capable of determining his return to power for a second term.






Examples of such include: Re-writing of the party’s constitution in his image and likeness; the expulsion of anti General Obasanjo elements from the party which includes Atiku; the closure of the Ibeto group cement factory; planting of Patricia Etteh as speaker; the ascendency of Ogbulafor to the chairmanship of the party; the persecution of Atiku, a son to Shehu and the Abacha’s family. Others include Transcorp, where ha had already taken share position, the ruling of the judiciary judgment on Anambra state were Andy Uba was already pressing as governor. Being a grand master in repaying old debt, these things would have been allowed to stand as they were when he left off.




Yaradua did not do this but rather, tampered with his privatization program by revisiting the sales of refineries, Aladja steel plant and his parting gift: increase in pump price and worse, the harassing of some members of his first eleven like Fani Kayode, Ribadu, and El Ruffai. On his score, Yaradua was actually a man of integrity but not to his likings.



THIRDLY AND HE ALSO SAID THIS: HE WANTED A BROAD MINDED PERSON. Here he got the man he was looking for. The president knew this and probably saw this as a weakness and consequently, brought in a couple of seemingly tribal warlords or conservatives into his government to complement this anti local government, state and region tendencies in him. By the fruits of their statement, we know them.



IF GENERAL OBASANJO DID NOT WANT YARADUA AS PRESIDENT, HE WOULD NEVER HAVE EMERGED. But he did and wanted him more than any one else. Only Yaradua would never have won if he were allowed to contest against more formidable opponents from the North. It was for this reason that the third term and the south must continue farce was created. To create a psychology of lose amongst the power brokers from the region and get them to accept anybody that would eventually be presented to them. This is were the third term scam comes in as part of the shaking up needed to get the region to accept half bread rather than nothing. Though, the calculation certainly would have banked on the greed and fear of the politicians for prosecution on charges of corruption, to include a possibility of success.



The real essence was to make his future preferred candidate acceptable to all sundry, up north who, would have gone for either Atiku or Buhari. Atiku however, would have carried the day. He had massive support in the south because of the persecution program of General Obasanjo, which was actually meant to destabilize him and his support base—remember Adenuga. Most persons down south wanted Atiku to have the opportunity of dealing with General Obasanjo. The third term scam almost served the purpose for the timing of it expiration. There was still, months ahead of the Election Day; enough time for the north to put it acts together and presents a candidate of their choice.




To discourage this, Odili obviously without his knowledge was endorsed to go and run for the presidency with an assurance that he was the nest. Off he went. The northern elders and politicians seeing the way and manner their governors were falling over themselves to line up behind Odili campaign decided something needed to be done and fast too to ensure the presidency returned to the region. So threat of doomsday took over. Then General Obasanjo encouraged some friendly northern governors like Adamu to join the race but maintained his support for Odili. Why? This was because he knew that at the appropriate time when Yaradua is unveiled, the north would have him without much resistant. Remember, half bread……….





To ensure smooth run for Yaradua, he gave him a seemingly weak vice president. After his experience with the iron man Atiku, he knew better. Goodluck, a governor for less than four years and with no national or international networks of friends like Atiku was settled for. When the ticket was unveiled, the north congratulated itself for its dexterity, the south-south, welcomed it for bringing them closer to the centre of gravity after many years of operating from the outside. The rest is before us.



Apparently, General Obasanjo did not discourse the entire plan with his then bosom friend, Chief Anenih. The only personality that might have had a full knowledge of the entire plan probably would be Andy Uba. He saw the president first and last, every day and being taciturn, reliable as a store of secrets. The rest just like the actors and actresses that they were, got their script and acted it with out knowing the title of the movie nor the target.




ALHAJI TANKO YAKASSAI STATED RECENTLY THAT AN ODILI FUND FOR THE CAMPAIGN WAS SEIZED, MAY BE. It is possible since Odili did not know when his role ended. He also stated that General Obasanjo promised to fund the campaign but reneged. That is very hollow. General Obasanjo would never have promised to spend his personal resources even if he, General Obasanjo was the one contesting. He also stated that it was at this junction that Dangote, Ibori, and Saraki intervened and mobilized fund for him in apparent defiance of General Obasanjo.




Dangote for sure would never have touched Yaradua with a 100metre long pole without General Obasanjo say so unless he was tired of the location of his sugar refinery—it is on a federal government property. Then Saraki; He would if he did not care for his father’s health as well his own return to office for second term because General Obasanjo would have given the father a heart attack of acute proportion by simply creating a Chris Uba from one of the motor parks in the state to make nonsense of his record. For Ibori, it was simply a case of their will be done, General Obasanjo; otherwise, he would have returned to court to defend himself against allegation of maybe, nail stealing to hammer the asbestos zinc in position or, even hammer.




General Obasanjo got everything he wanted with the exception of capturing Lagos, in his stay and eventual exist from office. He knew no man could ever elongate his stay in Nigeria beyond the constitutionally recognized term. He did not try it per se. third term was no for him and he said so. He is only losing them now because his calculation about the president failed to some extent.
In his plans you find neither wasted effort nor lapses just like the palm tree. Very soon his recent outburst would turn him into a rallying point for anti Yaradua persons, particularly, in government only to turn them in for sack, IF AND WHEN Yaradua returns to power and duties. Remember, he said; loyalty must be 100% and nothing more.



Sun Tzu and Greene are both personified in General Obasanjo. General Obasanjo grew in stature and increase in wisdom while hibernating at his Ota farm before his capture by Abacha.




Next time, we will look at the next set of power brokers that would emerge from the Yaradua health problem. Remember I once wrote that Ubas, el Ruffai and Ribadu would all cease to be power mongers and it came to pass. Check president Yaradua retooling exercise