By Ilobi Austin
At no other time
has the coast being clearer for Atiku to emerge the president of the country
than now. And all credit for this goes to no other than President Goodluck
Jonathan.
Thanks to
Jonathan’s interest in contesting the presidency under the PDP, against the
official position of the party, he has effortlessly gained the support of
General Babangida, a man with vast networks of loyalist across the length and breadth
of the country, particularly in the East where his SAP gave impetuous to the
industrial growth of cities like Nnewi, Onitsha and Aba. IBB would never have
willingly supported an Atiku presidency but for the unusual situation he now
finds himself: he still feels guilty and responsible for the foisting of
Obasanjo on Nigerians in concert with Atiku and by extension responsible for
the needless tension being generated by the decision of Goodluck to participate
in the coming general elections and therefore, the need to spear-head the fight
to stop him and return to the original understanding of the PDP founding
fathers.
Also now
available to him is the awesome political contacts of the Saraki clan. The
senior Saraki, a former senator, is in the Northern Union,
a pro-zoning organisation. He is equally a political super heavy weight in his
state and beyond having run for the presidency severally. His son and one of the aspirants that
sacrificed his ambition under the consensus deal is the governor of his state,
Kwara and chairman of the governors forums—for all it worth. It is to be
gain-said that no other family anywhere in the country has achieved as much as
the Sarakis, in terms of political attainment. General Gasau brings to the Atiku’s campaign
robust security knowledge of the political terrain in addition to contacts.
Atiku no longer
needs to engage in any kind of rat-race with the others in terms of promising
each region bread and butter. When this support from his Northern brothers, who
started out by reactivating their nation-wide contacts, in the guise of
aspiring for the office, is combined with the behemoth, PDM, he inherited from
his late leader, Shehu Yar'Adua, and which grew geometrically during the
formative and periods of the PDP and his reign as the Vice-president, the
picture of the coming PDP primaries in the North and general elections begins
to get clearer.
Atiku, a
progressive politician is at home in the south-west. It is on record that for MKO to emerge the SDP
flag-bearer, he had to step down his ambition. It was with his support and that
of his associates lead by the late Shehu Yar'Adua that Abiola was able to do
exploit, everywhere during the 1993 election. During the struggle to validate
the mandate having been annulled by the Babangida’s administration, he aligned
himself financially with the main stream group—NADECO. These activist, who
today forms the core of the ACN, are for all practical purpose the authentic
leaders of the people of the south-west. Without rigging or malpractice, Obasanjo
and his cohorts in the region are like fish out of water—the courts support
this assertion. And the CAN is not likely going o have anything to do with
Obasanjo again after their last experience with him when it was still AD. Once
beaten many time shy. Obasanjo is not a man to be trusted, period.
In terms of
cutting deals in the south, he is got the easy end, as far as protecting ethnic
interest is concern. Goodluck cannot pick a Yoruba as his running mate. And
with his war against zoning, would amount to deceit and a play on the
intelligence of the yorubas for him to promise them any position in the
National Assembly. Anti-zoning means
survival of the fittest and the different group would have to negotiate within
the assembly on who to produce what based on the strength of the parties in the
House. Atiku’s presidency on the other hand means a continuation of zoning. In
other words, one of these two positions is assured including the National
Chairman position of the party.
The south-east
has occupied every important or lucrative position within the country other
than the office of the president. Those that had eluded them in the past, they
have within this democratic period achieved—Chief of Army Staff, Inspector
General of Police not forgetting the Chief of Defence Staff. What is left is
the C-in-C position with Goodluck they can kiss that bye-bye, if not forever,
then, for a long time to come as it would become a matter of the mightiest
having their ways. And the North with their unity of purpose, which they have
displaced by reaching an agreement on a single candidate to confront a common
enemy in Goodluck, would dominate the polity, no doubt. With Atiku that is most
likely to happen in 2015, with his agreement to do the Nelson Mandela model.
And even if he decides to do the Goodluck format and continue for a second
term, it would still be a better option as 2019 would still be close than a
no-time proposal of the Jonathan camp. 2015 under Jonathan for the south –east to
take-over the presidency is not possible, the earliest with heavy north
sympathy is 2023.
As for the
north, Dr. Goodluck certainly cannot to relying on the support of Gana and the
rest. He must know that this election and the issue involves is bigger than any
one of them. It is about asking an important region to wait till 2023, that is,
21 years after the return of democracy to assume the office of the presidency
if we factor-in the Oha na eze so-called turn by turn arrangement. None of
these characters claiming to be working for him can deliver their wards,
including Gana. Leaders speak on behalf of their people and never for them; and
to do this, the leader has to have his ear wired to the ground. Right now, Gana
and the rest are speaking for their people, later; their people will have to
act for themselves. Ask the Bauchi state
governor if he is on the same page with the state chairman of his party on the
Goodluck project.
Ilobi Austin is
available on face book, twitter and www.vibratingaustin.blogspot.com