A letter to Mr. President

His Excellency,

The president and commander in chief,

Federal republic of Nigeria.

Dear President,

I desperately want you to help me to hang on to my self-belief in your ability to lead us to the promised.

I will start by congratulating you and your legal team for successfully persuading four of the seven Supreme Court justices into legitimizing the fraud that was passed off as elections last year; with all it’s implications on future elections. Once again, congratulations on your good fortune.

I am or rather was one of the biggest supporters, outside of your government, of your government after it was inaugurated on 29^th May, 2007. It could not have otherwise. You were the legally declared winner and then, your inauguration speech though, not radically different from that of your ancestors, coupled with your carriage and education, gave some measure of hope, that yours was going to be different.

Before then, I was a fanatical supporter of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar-also, a volunteer, both at the University of Nigeria, Enugu campus where thugs prevented the school community from voting at an “election” that started at about 5pm and at home, in Warri. This was not without reasons.

His plan for the energy-electricity, sector ran parallel to the Obasanjo’s one size fit all gas plan; then, Ribadu’s- the iron hand in Obasanjo’s velvet glove, onslaught on his person, had without meaning to, certified him as a man we could trust and then, the last but not the least, was his dignified carriage-his personality.

To underline my support for your administration, I had in the past, written severally on the need to allow you as much time as you need-I actually suggested 85% of your four years, to develop an actionable plan to tackle the myriad of problems that you inherited from the last regime. My submission was based not just on the need for a solid foundation, which could still be the wrong one for our situation but for a customized one.

But with the kind of annoying delays that one has witnessed in the simple matter of getting the structure of government not just functional but operational, I am beginning to doubt if there is really any planning going on let alone, an implement able one. The simple matter of replacing ministers has taken more time than I ever thought could be allocated for such exercise; this, juxtaposed against the actions of an “inexperienced” senator for two years, President-elect, Barack Obama who has almost completed the selection of members of his team ahead of his 20^th January, inaugurations, troubles the mind.

The simplest definition of a budget I ever heard in the university was that, it is a nairanized plan of action. It is very vexatious to me to always read about percentages been attached to the implementation of your plan of action. The budget is a law and I cannot understand why you should allow the government you led to break it. If you must infract upon the law, let it be for the good of the people of Nigeria. Spend more, not less. Dip your hands into the reserve like our former ruler without consultation but let it be for the general good of the people of this country. Spend as much as you want but just get this country going. Forget inflation, an increase in productivity that is bound to follow such spending should they be for the right reasons would ultimately, wipe out or equal it.

Ensconced in Aso rock, it is highly probable that you might not know the extent of sufferings and frustration in the land but I will let you know that your style of carrying forward budgeted funds has only helped to entrenched poverty in the land with the resultant increase in crime level. The budget is supposed to be your plan for a particular year drawn from that much advertised seven point agenda of yours.

Besides the above, the “area boy” diplomacy your security people deploys in handling reports relating to your health like, it is some nuclear secret that is been exposed, is uncalled for. It does no one any good for them to be seen to be attempting to crack an egg with a sledgehammer. But more than anything else, the people must survive. Considering the media houses involved, I am inclined to believe that those misinformations are primarily meant to create publicity. Example, the Leadership newspaper was relatively unknown until your people started their grabbing exercise, there and then; mainstream prints picked it up. The same with elendu report.

I will let you know this, had the Supreme Court ordered a fresh election, your candidacy would have been a hard to sell to millions of ordinary Nigerians even though your party-PDP, support is all you would have needed to return to your throne. As for me, I will be honest with you; I would have gone back to support once more, the emergence of an Action President-Atiku Abubakar.

Once again, congratulations and May the almighty God grant you all the wisdom and good health you need to steer the ship of state aright.

Yours truly,

Ilobi Austin

Shares prices notwithstanding, Nigerian banks remains strong

By Ilobi Austin

Ordinarily, I would not have bothered myself with the goings on in the stock market. But the continual “oh boy, it is still going down, I think I should sell, half bread is better than none” calls caused a change of mind. So, I have decided to write this as a kind of template to which I can straightforwardly direct all enquirers to.

The above statement I must state, does not in any way translate to either mean or suggest that I am the final word on stocks; no. I would readily welcome differing opinions and new ideas. I can’t claim to be an encyclopedia on it. But I know enough not to be taken to the cleaners by “experts” who only offload their holdings after getting you to hold the can for them.

Many reasons have been advanced for the continued slide in the prices of shares-all most likely. This includes the adjustment in the percentages of the circuit breakers to check the free fall in price, as some argued that it did not allow the shares to actually find their true level- likely reason but doesn’t resonate with me.

Another was the embargo by the Central Bank of Nigeria on margin loans by the banks. This seems a better argument but not to the extent of accounting entirely for the bearish market. According to Prof. Soludo, the total exposure of all the banks in Nigeria in the market of about #10 trillion is #700 billion. In percentage terms, this is just 7% of the total fund in the market. Not too grand a figure to take the glory for the change.

Other reasons include the now shelved uniform end of year date for banks, the required increase in the capital base of stock broking firms, and Investors prostitution in the market, all very likely. But the one that I believed finished the market “patapata” was the American made global financial crisis which created panic in the minds of both foreign and local participants.

Nigeria is not yet regarded as a haven for long term investment by foreign investors. Our infrastructural deficiency aside, we have the unflattering record of policy inconsistency. We scarcely modify policies here. We just continually supplant them. Example is the destination and pre-destination era in the ports. So, as soon as the problem started in America, majority quickly dumped their holdings which they acquired through, GDR.

Then, for their Nigerian counterparts, who, in truth, are just “follow the crowd” savers, they dumped theirs as soon as news-facts and rumours about financial crisis from abroad got to them. These are people with millions in shares but without adequate knowledge about the dynamics of the market. For them, if it could happen in “a whole America”, then, ours is RIP, it must be capital appreciation overnight; forgetting that the market was designed for long term even though the banks made it looked otherwise with their aggressive marketing of the consolidation period. They careless about bonus shares or dividends which, I am sure would be generously given this time.


The above to my mind, is all there is to the business of stocks prices. It movement does not determine the either the health or performance of the banks. The health of banks and any other institution for that matter is never tied to the performance of its shares in the market. Their positions can be glimpsed from their financials. The market is only a sign post of investor’s confidence either in the bank or sector, underlined by information-facts or rumour available to them, or perception-branding.

In this period of global financial crisis, a new generation bank posting an after tax profit of even a billion dollar, would still not interest conservative investor’s- they have really not understood them. They perceive them as just been a little better than “wonder banks”.

I still believe that our banks are fundamentally sound. UBA just proved this with it current financial result. That the six banks that applied to be market markers did not come up with the required #100b each, is just a matter of investment decision. The opportunity cost of doing this would have been depriving their customers- Otedola, Dangote, Jimoh, and all these other telecoms and oil expansion businesses of needed funds.

The banks are fundamentally solid. So also is the market. If the boss of Intercontinental Bank says it is safe to buy, then it is so. Buy now while they are still without flesh. Dry bones definitely, shall rise again. Definitely!


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