By Ilobi Austin
Like him or not, General Babangida is a human-magnet: almost twenty years after losing the power to dispense government patronage directly, he has managed to retain the loyalty of most of the persons—businessmen, politicians, technocrats, military colleagues, clergymen, etc—with whom he had dealings—official and otherwise— during his reign. His name, properly inserted into a publication, today, just like yesterday, is sure to fetch the author millions of naira provided he knows the right person to call, to get the man, IBB physically present at the “book presentation” ceremony. It is immaterial whether such publication is content driven, sentence collection or a re-christening of the old; all this in Nigeria, where most loyalties are on lease and last as long as the means of servicing them are available.
That is, for sure, more than one can say for any other past leader of Nigeria particularly, Obasanjo who just left the seat of power some three years ago. In-fact, he lost much of the new friends—Dr. Iweala, Dr. Odili, Gbenga Daniel, Adenuga, etc— the position of the president of the federal republic of Nigeria, brought his way, even before handing over the baton, of leadership. The old loyalist including his very son and wife—Moji—are all, almost his antagonist, today.
However this peculiar people skill in IBB, for which virtually all regimes after his had tended to venerate him for, is what he most times deploys, as a bargaining gambit, either for self, group or national interest: twice—2003 and 2007— in the life of the Obasanjo administration, it was deployed by his associates, in the form of a presidential ambition: in 2003, to get Obasanjo to accord him and they, the associates more recognition, in the future and in 2007, to get Obasanjo to hand-over to a northerner, even if not a Babangida. Just getting him provoked enough to scream, “Northerner”? “Yes!” “IBB”? “Never”!
The same gambit is what is being re-played under Jonathan’s administration—for group. The only difference being that, this time, it has not been left to media speculations or permutations. It has come from the proverbial “horse’s mouth” even though not too many of his allies have saluted the idea.
Beyond the above, there is no grasp-able reason for his wanting to lead the nation, again: he is not in the age bracket that is making things happen, across the globe; health-wise, according to reports, he is not in a showroom condition which the demands of the office demands. More importantly, he does not have the support of the state as represented by Dr. Jonathan—a very crucial support for hard-sell politician like himself. Remember, Obasanjo was only able to enter Aso rock due to a near unanimity amongst the then ruling class, the military, and their intending successor, the politicians, about his candidacy— and by extension, the organized business community who dare not risk a moment wandering in such landmines, the security agencies, in the event that the “one man one vote becomes another charade and then the political fixers most of whom had gotten themselves involved in unlawful conducts that requires state protection to keep the law far off
I am not too sure if he can gather up to six of the serving governors from the geo-political zones, including that of his state, Niger to discuss his ambition and make public commitment to same particularly with his current attrition with the federal government over the excess crude oil revenue/income during the three months Gulf war in Kuwait between the Allied Forces led by the United States and the Iraqis, over the latter occupation of Kuwait.
Aside the opposition from the presidency, there is still an extension one in almost all the geo-political zones that can be revved up and amplified at the appropriate time: Chief Moshood Abiola aborted pan-Nigerian electoral mandate and his death is a battle-cry for the south-west and pro-democracy activist nation-wide; the many deaths that resulted from protest against the annulment of the June 12th election: for Nigerians, directly and indirectly affected; still to be resolved letter-bombing of Dele Giwa during his regime: for the Nigerian media; controversial OIC membership/observer status: reminder to the Christians, moderate Muslims, Amadioaha, olokun etc worshippers that he is a fundamentalist that might not think much about consolidating all religious views into one—Islam, the Sultanate, for interfering with the established process of picking a sultan . There is equally the dismissal of Ukiwe from his government as a result of his differing view on the OIC issue and the non-elevation of officers of Eastern extraction to positions of any real significance: Igbos and MASSOB in particular. There is equally, the SAP!
Against these odds, it would be easier for a camel to dance through the eye of a needle than for him to receive the mantle of leadership from Dr. Goodluck. He is, to my mind, only negotiating for the governorship of his state, for his son. And against the Chief Servant, it is like a train making a U-turn in the eye of a needle. Impossible! Whichever way, IBB has been set for complete demystification. Who did it, I would not know. OBJ!!!
Ilobi Austin, an author with www.nigeriavillagesquare.com sent in this piece via thinkingaustin@gmail.com